Scientists Predict The Disappearance Of Ocean surface climates by 2100

About 95 per cent of Earth’s ocean surface could probably change by the end of the century if humanity will not reins in its carbon emissions, a Thursday research has revealed.

The vast majority of sea life is supported by ocean surface climates, which are defined by surface water temperature, acidity, and the concentration of the mineral aragonite, which many marine animals use to form bones and shells.

Since the Industrial Revolution, the world’s seas have absorbed roughly one-third of all carbon pollution.

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However, with atmospheric CO2 levels rising at a rate not seen in at least three million years, there is concern that ocean surface climates will become less hospitable to the species that live there.

Researchers in the United States wanted to see what effect carbon pollution had already had on the ocean surface since the mid-18th century. They also forecasted the impact of emissions until 2100. They did this by simulating global ocean climates over three time periods: the early nineteenth century (1795-1834), the late twentieth century (1965-2004), and the late twenty-first century (2065-2014).

They then ran the models through two different scenarios for emissions. The first, known as RCP4.5, predicts a peak in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, followed by a gradual decrease for the rest of the century.

The second scenario, RCP8.5, is a “business as usual” approach in which emissions continue to rise over the next 80 years.

The researchers discovered in the journal Nature Scientific Reports that under the RCP4.5 scenario, 36% of the ocean surface conditions present throughout the twentieth century are likely to disappear by 2100.

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In the high-emissions scenario, that figure rises to 95%. The researchers also discovered that, while ocean surface climates showed little change during the twentieth century, by 2100, up to 82% of the ocean surface may experience climates not seen in recent history.

These include seas that are hotter, more acidic and have fewer minerals necessary for sea life to thrive.

According to lead study author Katie Lotterhos of Northeastern University’s Marine Science Center, the changing composition of the ocean due to carbon pollution will likely affect all surface species.

“Species that are narrowly adapted to a disappearing climate will have to adapt to new conditions,” she told AFP. “A climate in which the water temperature and chemistry are common today will be rare or absent in the future.”

While surface species have been able to move around to avoid abnormally warm or acidic areas of the ocean in the past, Thursday’s study suggests that their options may be limited in the future due to near-uniform warming and acidification.

“Many marine species have already shifted their ranges in response to warmer waters,” Lotterhos said.

“Species communities found in one area will continue to shift and change rapidly in the coming decades.”

But, in the end, the world’s oceans require a cessation of the emissions that are causing their warming and acidification.

Lotterhos predicted that by 2100 there will be widespread novel and disappearing climates on the sea surface if emissions will not be mitigated


Scientists Predict The Disappearance Of Ocean surface climates by 2100

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